The Royal Navy may not have enough skilled personnel over future years to meet the personnel requirements for Britain's nuclear weapons submarines, according to a Ministry of Defence (MoD) risk register released under the Freedom of Information Act (available for download below).

The risk register, maintained by MoD's Defence Nuclear Executive Board, lists a range of threats to delivery of the UK's defence nuclear programme which, as well as staffing constraints, include poor public relations and reputational concerns, escalating costs and weak contractor performance, and the impact of Scottish devolution issues as potential challenges facing the deterrent programme.

The register notes that “there is a risk that the RN will not have sufficient suitably qualified and experienced personnel (SQEP) to be able to support the manning requirement of the submarine fleet”, with a shortage of personnel with technical nuclear skills highlighted as a particular concern. “Inability to recruit, retain, and develop sufficient nuclear and submarine design qualified and personnel will result in an inability to support Defence Nuclear Programme”, according to the register, with growth in the civil nuclear sector expected to generate rival opportunities attracting nuclear specialists away from the services, MoD, and military contractors.

The risk register raises questions about the ability of the UK's defence industrial base to deliver the requirements of the deterrent programme, warning of “erosion of manufacturing capability, cost growth, time delay, and poor performance of contractors”. Potential cost overruns present the risk that “programme costs are greater than those in the Dec 06 White Paper” which outlined the government's plans to replace Trident.

A redacted copy of the MoD risk register was provided to Nuclear Information Service in response to a request made under the Freedom of Information Act. Using our own knowledge of the MoD's nuclear programme we have published an 'uncensored' version of the register giving our assessment of the full range of 35 risks which we consider the defence nuclear programme faces, highlighting threats from Scottish devolution and the erosion of public and political support for nuclear weapons as major issues in addition to risks on the version released by the MoD.

Regardless of the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum, the debate over Scotland's constitutional arrangements will continue for years into the future and political and public opposition to Trident in Scotland is likely to increase potential difficulties for the MoD.

The perceived high cost of the nuclear weapons programme at a time when the economy is weak and defence budgets are being cut means that public and political support for the programme has eroded over recent years and may continue to do so.

Peter Burt, Director of Nuclear Information Service said: “Many of the risks on the register are highly complex and will persist and evolve over the full fifty year term of the Trident replacement programme, making them very difficult for the Ministry of Defence to control.

“They highlight the fact that there are major pitfalls ahead and that Trident replacement is far from a forgone conclusion. How effective we are at mastering these risks will determine whether Britain can remain in the nuclear weapons business.

“The worst possible outcome would be for the next government to commit to going ahead with Trident replacement, but then fail to fully deliver the programme because of an inability to manage the significant risks entailed”.

Download copies of the redacted Ministry of Defence risk register and NIS's uncensored version here: