Able Archer 83 Document E12 Memo from the Private Secretary, 10 Downing Street, 10 April 1984: ‘Soviet concern about a surprise NATO attack’

Refers to a meeting on 10 April 1984 attended by the Prime Minister, the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary, the Secretary of State for Defence, Sir Robert Armstrong, ‘C’, and one other person to discuss what action should be taken about the conclusions of the Joint Intelligence Committee report. The Prime Minister had said that: “We should consider what could be done to remove the danger that, by mis-calculating Western intentions, the Soviet Union would over-react”.

There had been some differences of view in the JIC on the weight to be put on the Soviet reaction, but the committee “stood by its conclusions” and that there had been “an unusual nature of the Soviet reaction to Able Archer”.

The Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary said that taking account of the evidence, including weighing the possibility of a Soviet disinformation campaign, the conclusions of the JIC report must be accepted and it was desirable to discuss them with the US Government.

It was agreed that officials should meet urgently to discuss the possibility of an approach to the United States. The Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary would discuss concerns at two forthcoming meetings in May and the British Ambassador in Washington would go over the ground beforehand with the State Department in preparation.

“There was a more general need to continue and perhaps intensify HMG’s efforts to promote an atmosphere of greater confidence between East and West”, and a series of Ministerial visits with Warsaw Pact countries and a programme of contacts with Soviet politicians was discussed.

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