Notes that the scope of the JIC paper has widened during its preparation from discussing reactions to Exercise Able Archer to Soviet Union concern about a surprise NATO attack. Raises two policy issues for consideration:
– The issue of perceived Soviet reactions and concerns about Western intentions which is “clearly extremely important: The inference to be drawn from the evidence will need, evidently, careful consideration”.
– The implications for NATO exercises which is also “extremely important”. The author sees “some merit in discussing with Allies the possibility that NATO should inform the Soviet Union on a routine basis of proposed NATO exercise activity involving nuclear play, as a useful confidence building measure”.
Asks “how should one evaluate overall the military evidence to support the view that there are signs of heightened concern in the Soviet Union about the West’s nuclear strike intentions?”